Authors:

Soha Ali

Date Created:

Not specified

Course Title:

Professor:

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About Paper:

Changes in environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity) can enhance or dilute disease depending on transmission modes. Given that variables can interact with each other and are often correlated, linear modelling is unsuitable. As an alternative, piecewise Structural Equation Models (SEMs) allow us to account for these dependencies. As such, this project aimed to evaluate potential drivers of change in disease burden using piecewise SEMs. To this aim, we gathered data on Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for 27 diseases across 10 countries and associated environmental and socioeconomic (e.g., wealth, population density, urban population) variables. DALYs were used as a metric for disease burden since they provide higher sensitivity for diseases with sublethal effects. Among the environmental variables, results suggest that DALYs from directly-transmitted diseases are affected by temperature, precipitation, forest cover and biodiversity. DALYs caused by vector-borne diseases (i.e., dengue) were only impacted by precipitation, while DALYs from helminths (i.e., cysticercosis and hookworm disease) were impacted by both temperature and precipitation. DALYs caused by hookworm disease were additionally impacted by biodiversity changes. Results provide essential knowledge on disease ecology in the context of global change, which can help policymakers and managers to tailor strategies to decrease disease burden.

Source:

DePaul University

Topics:

No topics listed

Co-authors:

Soha Ali